When it comes to electoral re-distributions, it’s all a numbers game.
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To ensure fair and proportional representation across regions in federal parliament’s House of Representatives, the Australian Electoral Commission (AEC) has calculated the average number of voters required in any electorate needs to be within 3.5 per cent of 110 542 voters, based on future projections of enrolments.
In last week’s redistribution announcement by the AEC, the Redistribution Committee confirmed that Lyne’s boundaries would shift significantly with the “consequential decrease in the proposed Division of Paterson”, which currently encompasses up to the Great Lakes. It also acknowledged the inclusion of the major mid north coast centres of Port Macquarie (formerly of Lyne) and Coffs Harbour into the same electoral division of Cowper.
Explaining its reasoning, it pointed to the Electoral Act’s “numerical requirements and obligations relating to community of interests, means of communication and travel, the physical features and area of the proposed electoral division and the boundaries of existing electoral divisions.”
It quoted a ‘push’ towards the Hunter Valley region by the existing electoral divisions to its north and south, and so abolished the existing seat of Hunter (but renamed the seat of Charlton, ‘Hunter’) to enable it to spread the numbers around.
This in turn meant shuffling Lyne’s boundaries further south so that by 2019 more than 16,000 km2 will house 107,098 anticipated voters instead of 99,398 as the boundaries currently sit. This will enable Lyne, currently held by Nationals member David Gillespie, to “fall within the acceptable numerical tolerances.’
So by taking a little bit from here and a giving a little bit from there, Lyne will gain 44,724 voters from the seat of Paterson - including Dungog, Great Lakes, parts of Maitland and the Port Stephens local government area.
By the same token, Lyne’s neighbouring seat of Cowper to the north needs more voters too.
So Lyne will in turn give up areas south of Kempsey to Port Macquarie, giving Cowper – 37, 024 electors to be exact – what it needs for proportional representation into the future.
Similarly, the seat of Paterson, currently held by Nationals member Bob Baldwin, will change from 99, 749 projected voters to 109, 455 within a 1,124 km2 radius by absorbing seats mostly westward of its current boundaries.
The reshuffle is designed to build the seat of Lyne with what the Electoral Committee deems to be ‘communities of interest’ south of Taree and Gloucester (both of which are already within Lyne’s boundaries).
The new boundaries will be formally gazetted on February 25.